
photo credit: indigoprime
Four years worth - maximum.
According to the U.S. geological survey’s most optimistic estimate there could be as much as 11.8 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil in ANWR - that is oil which is recoverable if you aren’t concerned with the cost - of course they also say that there could be a lot less. For the sake of argument I’m going to assume the most. The data for this is derived from the 1998 US Geological Survey petroleum assesment for ANWR area 1002.
According to the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration in 2007 the United States consumed 20.6 Million barrels of crude oil per day.
So, if the most optimistic estimate of the USGS is true - and our consumption doesn’t increase - at best there is only enough oil in ANWR to satisfy our oil addiction for slightly less than 4 years. Most new car loans last longer. Of course since oil is a fungible commodity and worldwide demand is at 87.5 million barrels per day (for now) it would actually only last a bit over eleven months. Considered as an international commodity all of the oil in the entire arctic (including that currently under the ice) would only last about 7 years.
So why the big fuss over just enough oil to prolong the agony for a mere four years - and only that if we could hog it all for exclusive use in the United States? Because the street value of the oil under ANWR at today’s prices is almost 1.4 Trillion Dollars. A lot of money for the petroleum industry even if it isn’t all that much energy security for the United States.
As it turns out it would take almost a million 2 megawatt wind generators to turn out enough energy to completely replace all of the petroleum based energy that we currently use in the United States. If they each cost two million dollars then it would be a 2 trillion dollar total investment (about the total US federal budget excluding social security for 2008) to no longer be dependant on petroleum - forever. We would pay the same amount for the wind energy that we are paying now for crude, but after six years the wind farms would be paid for - that formula works if we build one or a million and one. After that the electricity costs about one cent per kilowatt hour - less than a tenth of what we now pay.
Considering that we’ve already spent about 650 billion dollars on the Iraq war - which most Americans agree is about oil - it doesn’t seem like such a crazy amount to me.
By the way, I’m not proposing that tax dollars be used to pay for those wind farms (and solar installations) the idea is that we point incentives at development of renewable resources just like we have at petroleum development except hopefully without the graft, corruption and war mongering.
All we have to do is want to do it, and stop drinking the Kool aid that says we can’t.
Yet another upside to wind, solar, and other renewable energy recources is that tons of good paying jobs would be generated for development and maintenance - none of which could be out sourced to another country.
Ok, using wind to replace our use of petroleum all at once isn’t feasible, and yes, I know that you can’t power semi trucks with electricity yet, but you can power trains with it (we do it all the time), and there are also other technologies available - wind is just the example I’m using here as a renewable resource. For the foreseeable future we will need other means for times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
But, Don’t Forget the OCS
The Outer Continental Shelf - the other untapped oil reserve languishing because of environmental moratorium. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency 2007 Annual Energy Outlook and the 2007 report from the National Petroleum Council there may be about 60 billion barrels of undiscovered but “technically recoverable” oil resources in all of the lower 48 OCS. Of which about 19 billion barrels (about 6.4 years worth for the U.S. or 18.5 months on the international market) are in moratorium areas unavailable by law or public policy from leasing and development. The other approximately 41 billion barrels of undiscovered oil - nearly 70% of the undiscovered Outer Continental Shelf oil resources - are already available to leasing and development.
In summary, if we lift the moratorium on all of the oil in ANWR and the OCS together the extra oil might last as long as 10.5 years if we could keep it for just the U.S. and only 2.4 years on the international market.
The point is this - we can afford to use renewable energy / we can’t afford not to. The sooner we start the better off we and our children will be, and drilling in our environmentally sensitive areas just won’t buy us much time.
1) According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s website a barrel of crude oil represents 5.8 million BTUs of energy equivalent to 1,700 kilowatt hours. According to the American Wind Energy Association website an average utility scale wind generator can produce about 2 megawatts. This equates to approximately 5.5 million kilowatt hours per year of actual energy production. The math is simple from there. The cool thing is that we know where the wind (and sunshine) is, and how often it blows - we don’t really know where or how much oil there is until after we drill.
“Annual Energy Outlook 2007 With Projections to 2030,” Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy, February 2007
“Facing the Hard Truths About Energy: A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas,” National Petroleum Council, July 2007.
1998 US Geological Survey petroleum assesment for ANWR area 1002.
US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration